Recent statistics across Virginia and the nation indicate that the floundering economy is likely to stimulate growth in one sector: crime.  Recently published FBI crime statistics show that last year property crime increased in Virginia. Larceny theft accounted for 77 percent of property crime statewide , 10 percent higher than the national average.

“Increases in property crime do tend to follow economic downturns,” said Debbie Roberts, a database administrator for the Department of Criminal Justice Services in Virginia.

Nationwide trends reflect a slight decline in property crime overall, with a significant 13 percent decline in motor vehicle theft. The 9 year trend for larceny had shown a decline until the past year. Last year in Virginia, there were 5, 915 more larcenies state-wide, with almost all areas reporting.

In the beginning of 2009, the Police Executive Research Forum released a report that 44 percent of the 233 agencies surveyed cited an increase in crime due to an economic crisis.

“In a limited way, a lot of police chiefs say, yes, they see crime that can be attributed to the economy,” said Craig Fischer, director of communications for PERF.

There are mixed opinions among experts about whether abnormal situations alter an individual’s normal behavior.

“People who have been law abiding citizens don’t just lose their jobs and go out and rob someone,” said Roberts.

Both Roberts and Fischer noted that while there appears to be a positive correlation between crime and the economy, there are many factors to consider. PERF also reported that 63 percent of the nation’s police departments faced cuts in their funding.  Fischer noted that policing has changed from the old method of waiting for a call and dispatch.

“The big development is that police are more interested in community engagement,” said Fischer.

“Smart policing can bring crime down, but fewer officers might be a factor allowing more crime to happen,” he also said.

Larceny statistics could likely continue to increase this year, with so many police departments facing budget cuts.

Despite the difficulty in making a direct correlation between crime and economy, opportunistic crimes have increased. Fischer and Danville police Chief Philip Broadfoot both cited the theft increase of copper pipes from vacant homes.

Of cities with a population greater than 40,000, Danville was in the top five for larceny increases. Danville had an 18 percent increase, with a total of 2,097 larcenies reported to the FBI. The rate of larceny in Danville is 47 for every 1,000 inhabitants.

Chief Broadfoot attributed the increase in larceny to the high prices of scrap metal and changes in legislation that relaxed the steps scrap metal dealers had to take when purchasing scrap metal from the streets.

“When copper prices peaked we had any and everything stolen and sold to scrap dealers,” said Broadfoot.

“We had AC units taken, copper gutters stolen off churches, copper pipes, copper wiring from homes under construction,” he also said, to illustrate the severity of theft.

The price of scrap metal and a city’s proximity to a scrap metal yard could account for a city’s increase in larceny.

“I predict that any city within 50 miles of a scrap metal yard had an increase in larceny,” said Broadfoot.

His statement holds true for the five cities with a population greater than 40,000, who had the highest larceny increase. Lynchburg, Danville, Portsmouth, Hampton and Alexandria are all within forty miles or even closer to a scrap metal buyer.  This also applies to the top five cities with the highest numbers of larcenies: Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Newport News, Richmond and Chesapeake.

Broadfoot confirmed that Danville‘s budget was cut with the recession and he said that for 2009, “We will probably continue at our current pace, we have some serious poverty issues here that contribute to our larceny rates, despite a recession.”

“Larceny is a way of life for many people here,” he said.

Roberts pointed out that from 1999-2008 there was a 15 percent decrease in property crime statewide. Richmond, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake all placed in both the top five for highest amount of larcenies and biggest decrease in larcenies.

“Spending on a police department could more than pay for itself, because the price of crime is so high, ” said Fischer.

See spreadsheet data: http://tinyurl.com/yb4ufey